BetaExpected points projections
Every player's points for the coming gameweeks as a distribution rather than one number: the median, the most likely score, the P10 to P90 range and the chance of a haul. Open a player to see how the number is built.
Stage
Post press conference
27h to the GW7 deadline
Gameweeks
GW7–12
2,000 simulations per player
Match context
Fitted model
This season's team xG
Run
Data last updated . Source: the official Fantasy Premier League API.
Model 0.5.1
Projections
177 players
| Player | Opp | Pos | P10 – P90 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI | IPS (H) | FWD | 15.6 | 6.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 13 | 19% | 43% | 6.0 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | MID | 9.6 | 4.7 | 3 | 2 | 2 10 | 13% | 45% | 2.0 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | DEF | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3 | 1 | 0 11 | 13% | 47% | 10.5 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | FWD | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 2 9 | 9% | 58% | 6.0 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | MID | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 10 | 13% | 50% | 5.5 | |
| MUN | lee (a) | MID | 11.9 | 4.4 | 3 | 2 | 1 10 | 11% | 49% | 1.5 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | MID | 6.6 | 4.4 | 3 | 2 | 1 10 | 11% | 49% | 8.0 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | DEF | 5.0 | 4.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 10 | 11% | 44% | 1.5 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | MID | 7.9 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 1 10 | 10% | 49% | 5.5 | |
| AVL | new (a) | MID | 5.9 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 1 10 | 11% | 50% | 8.0 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | DEF | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 9 | 9% | 46% | 4.5 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | DEF | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 9 | 8% | 43% | 8.0 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | MID | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 10 | 11% | 53% | 10.0 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | MID | 9.7 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 10 | 11% | 55% | 5.0 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | DEF | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 9% | 54% | 5.0 | |
| MUN | lee (a) | MID | 7.9 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 10 | 10% | 53% | 5.0 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | MID | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 9 | 8% | 52% | 2.0 | |
| MUN | lee (a) | MID | 7.9 | 4.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 10% | 51% | 10.0 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | MID | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 9 | 9% | 45% | 3.5 | |
| COV | tot (a) | MID | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 9 | 9% | 50% | 6.0 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | DEF | 5.4 | 3.9 | 3 | 1 | 1 9 | 8% | 45% | 1.5 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | MID | 6.3 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 9% | 54% | 2.0 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | DEF | 5.5 | 3.9 | 3 | 1 | 1 8 | 6% | 40% | 3.0 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | DEF | 5.5 | 3.9 | 3 | 3 | 1 9 | 7% | 39% | 3.0 | |
| MCI | IPS (H) | MID | 8.3 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 9 | 9% | 53% | 10.0 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | MID | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 9% | 56% | 2.0 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | DEF | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3 | 1 | 1 8 | 7% | 45% | 6.5 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | DEF | 5.0 | 3.8 | 3 | 1 | 1 9 | 7% | 44% | 4.0 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | DEF | 6.2 | 3.8 | 3 | 2 | 1 8 | 6% | 43% | 8.5 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | MID | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 9% | 55% | 1.5 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | MID | 5.7 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 7% | 54% | 3.5 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | DEF | 5.5 | 3.8 | 3 | 2 | 1 8 | 6% | 44% | 5.5 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | MID | 5.5 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 0 9 | 9% | 53% | 3.0 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | FWD | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 0 9 | 8% | 65% | 2.0 | |
| COV | tot (a) | DEF | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3 | 1 | 1 8 | 6% | 43% | 6.5 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | MID | 6.8 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 1 8 | 7% | 54% | 1.5 | |
| BRE | LIV (H) | FWD | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 0 9 | 7% | 65% | 4.5 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | DEF | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2 | 1 | 1 8 | 6% | 55% | 1.5 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | DEF | 5.0 | 3.6 | 3 | 1 | 0 8 | 6% | 45% | 6.0 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | MID | 7.3 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 1 8 | 6% | 57% | 4.0 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | FWD | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 1 8 | 4% | 69% | 0.0 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | MID | 5.8 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 9 | 7% | 59% | 2.5 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | DEF | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 7% | 59% | 3.0 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | DEF | 7.9 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 8 | 5% | 53% | 1.5 | |
| MCI | IPS (H) | DEF | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 8 | 5% | 60% | 5.0 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | MID | 5.9 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 7% | 59% | 0.0 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | MID | 8.0 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 7% | 61% | 2.5 | |
| AVL | new (a) | MID | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 7% | 61% | 8.0 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | MID | 5.0 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 0 9 | 9% | 56% | 6.5 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | DEF | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2 | 1 | 1 8 | 6% | 61% | 1.5 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | GK | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3 | 2 | 1 8 | 4% | 49% | 6.0 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | MID | 6.5 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 7% | 56% | 2.0 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | FWD | 5.7 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 5% | 70% | 8.5 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | MID | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 6% | 56% | 4.5 | |
| BRE | LIV (H) | GK | 5.0 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 5% | 51% | 4.0 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | DEF | 5.0 | 3.3 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 4% | 53% | 2.0 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | MID | 5.9 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 1 9 | 7% | 61% | 2.5 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 5% | 55% | 7.0 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | GK | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 3% | 54% | 2.5 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | DEF | 5.4 | 3.3 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 5% | 55% | 0.5 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | FWD | 7.8 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 6% | 70% | 6.0 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.3 | 3 | 0 | 0 8 | 6% | 50% | 3.5 | |
| IPS | mci (a) | MID | 5.5 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 6% | 63% | 2.0 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | DEF | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 7% | 53% | 1.5 | |
| BRE | LIV (H) | MID | 5.0 | 3.3 | 3 | 2 | 1 6 | 4% | 46% | 3.0 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | FWD | 6.3 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 5% | 72% | 1.0 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | GK | 4.6 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 3% | 55% | 7.5 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | MID | 6.0 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 4% | 55% | 3.5 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | GK | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 1% | 59% | 2.5 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | DEF | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 5% | 57% | 7.0 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | FWD | 5.8 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 8 | 4% | 73% | 4.5 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | GK | 5.0 | 3.2 | 3 | 2 | 1 7 | 5% | 50% | 2.5 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | DEF | 5.0 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 7% | 58% | 4.0 | |
| MCI | IPS (H) | GK | 5.5 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 3% | 55% | 5.5 | |
| MUN | lee (a) | DEF | 4.9 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 7 | 3% | 56% | 1.5 | |
| COV | tot (a) | DEF | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 63% | 10.0 | |
| MCI | IPS (H) | DEF | 5.5 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 63% | 3.5 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | MID | 7.3 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 6 | 3% | 56% | 4.0 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | MID | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 6 | 3% | 54% | 4.5 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | GK | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 4% | 56% | 2.0 | |
| MCI | IPS (H) | MID | 6.3 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 7 | 5% | 56% | 4.0 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | FWD | 6.0 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 5% | 72% | 2.0 | |
| MUN | lee (a) | GK | 4.9 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 3% | 57% | 3.0 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | GK | 4.7 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 4% | 54% | 4.0 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 4% | 60% | 3.5 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | DEF | 6.5 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 4% | 55% | 4.0 | |
| BRE | LIV (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 4% | 58% | 6.5 | |
| AVL | new (a) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 59% | 2.0 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | DEF | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 57% | 4.5 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | DEF | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 56% | 1.0 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | MID | 5.5 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 6 | 2% | 55% | 3.0 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | FWD | 7.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 3% | 73% | 2.0 | |
| MUN | lee (a) | DEF | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 60% | 1.0 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 5% | 63% | 6.0 | |
| COV | tot (a) | DEF | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 56% | 3.0 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | GK | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 3% | 58% | 1.5 | |
| IPS | mci (a) | DEF | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 6% | 66% | 1.5 | |
| COV | tot (a) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 55% | 5.0 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | MID | 6.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 5% | 67% | 3.5 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | GK | 5.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 2% | 60% | 4.5 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 61% | 4.0 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | MID | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 6 | 4% | 60% | 5.0 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | DEF | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 8 | 4% | 60% | 2.5 | |
| COV | tot (a) | GK | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 2% | 60% | 7.0 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | MID | 5.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 8 | 5% | 68% | 4.0 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | MID | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 3% | 62% | 2.0 | |
| BRE | LIV (H) | MID | 5.5 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 7 | 4% | 65% | 2.5 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | MID | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 4% | 68% | 5.5 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | GK | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 1% | 64% | 2.0 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | MID | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 6 | 2% | 57% | 2.0 | |
| AVL | new (a) | GK | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 7 | 3% | 57% | 2.0 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 63% | 5.5 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | DEF | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 65% | 0.5 | |
| BHA | CRY (H) | MID | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 7% | 67% | 3.0 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 63% | 5.0 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | FWD | 7.0 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 7 | 3% | 75% | 1.5 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | FWD | 6.0 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 4% | 74% | 3.5 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | GK | 4.9 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 1% | 64% | 0.5 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | FWD | 5.5 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 8 | 4% | 75% | 1.0 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | GK | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 1% | 65% | 1.0 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | MID | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 5 | 3% | 61% | 2.0 | |
| MCI | IPS (H) | DEF | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 0 7 | 5% | 67% | 4.0 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | MID | 6.9 | 2.8 | 2 | 0 | 0 8 | 5% | 65% | 0.8 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | DEF | 5.4 | 2.8 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 64% | 1.5 | |
| MCI | IPS (H) | DEF | 5.9 | 2.8 | 2 | 1 | 0 6 | 2% | 62% | 3.5 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | MID | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 1 6 | 3% | 68% | 2.0 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | MID | 5.4 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 1 6 | 2% | 66% | 4.5 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | DEF | 5.9 | 2.8 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 60% | 2.5 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | DEF | 4.9 | 2.8 | 2 | 1 | 0 6 | 3% | 56% | 6.0 | |
| AVL | new (a) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 66% | 2.0 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | MID | 5.4 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 0 5 | 2% | 58% | 3.0 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | DEF | 4.2 | 2.7 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 69% | 1.0 | |
| BRE | LIV (H) | DEF | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 68% | 3.0 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | FWD | 6.0 | 2.7 | 2 | 2 | 0 7 | 4% | 77% | 4.5 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | DEF | 4.4 | 2.7 | 2 | 1 | 1 6 | 2% | 69% | 1.0 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | DEF | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 70% | 1.0 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | DEF | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2 | 1 | 0 6 | 3% | 68% | 1.0 | |
| IPS | mci (a) | DEF | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2 | 1 | 0 6 | 3% | 60% | 3.0 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | MID | 5.5 | 2.6 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 71% | 5.5 | |
| IPS | mci (a) | MID | 5.4 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 0 6 | 3% | 71% | -0.5 | |
| IPS | mci (a) | FWD | 5.6 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 0 7 | 3% | 79% | 2.0 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | GK | 5.5 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 1 7 | 1% | 67% | 4.5 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 4% | 65% | 5.5 | |
| IPS | mci (a) | MID | 4.9 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 1 5 | 2% | 67% | 3.0 | |
| IPS | mci (a) | DEF | 4.0 | 2.6 | 2 | 1 | 0 7 | 3% | 65% | 6.5 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | MID | 5.4 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 1 5 | 2% | 68% | 3.5 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.6 | 2 | 1 | 0 6 | 2% | 68% | 1.0 | |
| COV | tot (a) | MID | 4.9 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 1 5 | 2% | 70% | 2.5 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | MID | 5.0 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 0 6 | 3% | 64% | 3.5 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | DEF | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 6 | 2% | 71% | 1.0 | |
| AVL | new (a) | MID | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 5 | 1% | 66% | 5.0 | |
| ARS | nfo (a) | DEF | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 6 | 3% | 70% | 2.5 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | MID | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 5 | 2% | 65% | 2.5 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | DEF | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 6 | 2% | 72% | 1.0 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 7 | 4% | 70% | 0.8 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | DEF | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 6 | 2% | 69% | 3.5 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | DEF | 4.8 | 2.4 | 2 | 1 | 0 6 | 3% | 64% | 6.0 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | FWD | 5.6 | 2.4 | 2 | 2 | 0 6 | 2% | 80% | 1.5 | |
| TOT | COV (H) | MID | 4.9 | 2.4 | 2 | 2 | 0 5 | 3% | 66% | 2.5 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 7 | 4% | 71% | 0.5 | |
| EVE | CHE (H) | DEF | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 6 | 3% | 66% | 1.9 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 6 | 2% | 68% | 0.5 | |
| BOU | SUN (H) | MID | 5.0 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 1 4 | 1% | 66% | 2.5 | |
| COV | tot (a) | MID | 4.8 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 0 5 | 2% | 71% | 3.5 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | DEF | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 6 | 3% | 73% | 1.5 | |
| AVL | new (a) | DEF | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 6 | 2% | 71% | -0.5 | |
| MUN | lee (a) | DEF | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 7 | 4% | 71% | 0.0 | |
| SUN | bou (a) | MID | 4.8 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 1 4 | 1% | 73% | 2.5 | |
| LIV | bre (a) | DEF | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 6 | 2% | 75% | 3.5 | |
| LEE | MUN (H) | MID | 4.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 6 | 3% | 76% | 1.5 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | MID | 4.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 5 | 1% | 73% | 10.0 | |
| NFO | ARS (H) | DEF | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 6 | 2% | 74% | 0.0 | |
| FUL | HUL (H) | MID | 4.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 4 | 1% | 73% | 2.5 | |
| CHE | eve (a) | DEF | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 6 | 1% | 75% | 1.5 | |
| NEW | AVL (H) | MID | 5.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 5 | 1% | 75% | 3.5 | |
| CRY | bha (a) | GK | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 4 | 3% | 65% | 4.5 | |
| HUL | ful (a) | MID | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 0 4 | 2% | 82% | 0.5 |
Click a row for the breakdown. Click a 60+ % to set your own minutes forecast: mean, range, haul and blank rescale with the chance he plays (an estimate on top of the model, kept on this page only). Pick several gameweeks to total them; the haul column then becomes the chance of at least one 10+ gameweek.
What this run knew
Press-conference availability claims processed; odds refreshed.
| Input | Status | Observed | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| FPL players (status, chance, news) | available | 16/10/2026, 04:50:00 | 667 players |
| Per-match player history | available | — | 3885 rows |
| Market FDR fixture xG | stale | 13/09/2026, 01:00:00 | 760 rows are the import's own model forecasts from a stale import; fitted model used instead |
| Bookmaker player markets | available | 16/10/2026, 05:05:00 | 472 players matched for GW7 |
| Elite start rates | available | — | gameweek 6 |
| Press-conference claims | available | 15/10/2026, 17:30:00 | 12 claims from 2 sources since the previous deadline; 12 players adjusted |
| Reviewer overrides | missing | — | 0 players |
| Last-season player record | available | — | 409 of 667 players from 2025-26; 53 at a new club |
See the week's team news and match odds in full.
- Availability: FPL status, chance of playing and news as of 2026-10-16T07:20:00.362Z.
- Match context: fitted attack/defence model on this season's team xG (no Market FDR rows for these fixtures).
- Odds: scorer markets matched for 472 players (gameweek 7).
- Press conferences: 12 claims processed for this gameweek (latest 2026-10-15T16:30); 12 players adjusted.
- Elite start rates from gameweek 6.
- Priors: each player's own 2025-26 record (discounted at a new club), falling back to position and price bands.
- Lineup check: every team-fixture sums to eleven starters with one goalkeeper (120 checked).
Reading the numbers
- Mean is the long-run average and the number most tools show. A keeper's mean of 3.2 is a score he rarely gets.
- Median splits outcomes in half; mode is the single most likely score.
- P10 to P90 is the range that holds about 80% of outcomes; the tick is the mean.
- Haul is the chance of 10 points or more in the gameweek; over a longer horizon the column becomes the chance of at least one 10+ gameweek. Blank is 2 or fewer.
- A wide range means an explosive player, not a poorly informed model. What the run knew is listed above, and the player drawer shows the minutes certainty separately.
- The stage says what the run knew: an early look has form and fixtures only, odds arrive 48 hours before the deadline, press conferences the day before.
- Every run is scored once its gameweek finishes. See how accurate the projections have been →